June 23 2025
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Q. How do you ‘distill’ the meaning of Israel’s ‘Rising Lion’ war with Iran at a time when it is still ongoing and metamorphosing almost by the hour?
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A. First, we must recognize that Israel’s June 13 preemptive attack was a resounding military maneuver that will apparently have a profound effect on the Middle East and beyond. Whatever happens from herein, this achievement cannot be erased. Israel’s demonstration of aerial and intelligence domination of Iran is unprecedented. So is Syrian and Iraqi passivity or neutrality when confronted with Israel’s massive overflights. Even the historic US B2 attack on Fordow could only take place after the Israel Air Force had cleared the skies over Iran.
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A lot of the Israel Defense Force’s audacity in attacking Iran reflects and responds to Israel’s trauma from October 7, 2023. That is a topic for separate analysis. Here we attempt to ‘distill’ the meaning of the war by focusing on strategic underpinnings that continue to underlie and inform events. And by focusing on the dangers of overreach by Israel and/or the United States.
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Yossi Alpher's Death Tango: Ariel Sharon, Yasser Arafat and Three Fateful Days in March
"Anyone seeking to understand how Israelis and Palestinians traded the hopes of Oslo for something approaching hopelessness is well-advised to read this book. With penetrating analysis and elegant prose, Yossi Alpher has told the gripping story of three days nearly two decades ago that continue to haunt would-be peacemakers. Yossi’s faithful readers will not be disappointed with his latest effort."
Ambassador Frederic C. Hof, Bard College
"A riveting account of the crucial days in March 2002 when the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was profoundly changed for the worse. The peace camp has never recovered from those wrenching days, and we live now without any hope of a just settlement. Alpher is a highly respected expert who has spent decades studying this conflict from both sides."
Bruce Riedel, Director of the Brookings Intelligence Project
"A critical assessment of a key period in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict never before presented in such detail. The best and most capable players at the executive and political levels proved unable to forge any resolution, final or partial, because both parties continued to maintain an insurmountable gulf between themselves. This is a MUST read for anyone daring to tackle the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and of Israel-Arab relations in general."
Efraim Halevy, former Head of the Mossad (1998-2002)
Oraib Khader and Avi Bar-On are youngish Palestinian and Israeli bachelors with security experience, readiness to do business with one another, a shared fondness for women and money, and total cynicism about the lack of peace between their two peoples.
Oraib and Avi can never become true friends: the cultural and political gaps are too wide. But as they confront a failed peace process and a bleak peace future, they readily become business partners: shady business that exploits a lot of naïve international peace aspirations.
As Oraib sums up on a visit to Sarpsborg, Norway, where the ultimately-failed Oslo peace talks were held, “There is a lesson here for those who still doggedly and hopelessly pursue a two-state solution in the Middle East. Get smart. Get out of the Israeli-Palestinian peace business. Step back and let the Jews and Arabs screw one another while making money.”