Dec 15, 2025
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Q. The best of times and the worst of times.
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A. ​​​​The year coming to an end did witness strong military achievements against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. Progress was registered toward stabilizing Gaza, Lebanon and Syria along Israel’s borders. The hostages held by Hamas were returned. The nuclear threat posed by Iran was radically reduced.
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If we set aside the internal damage being inflicted constantly to Israel’s health as a Jewish and democratic society (see 2026, below), it sounds like 2025 was on balance a good year for Israel’s overall security.
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Q. Indeed, what are Israel’s security prospects looking toward 2026, particularly regarding societal resilience?
A. They are dim. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has, in the course of 2025, replaced every single security official who shared responsibility for the debacle of October 7, 2023--except himself. There is still no national commission of inquiry to examine the roots of that disaster. This raises the prospect of a repeat performance in 2026, in the West Bank for example.
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Two months after the reputed ‘end’ of the war in Gaza and a year after a reputed ceasefire in Lebanon, nowhere is there a decisive victory as the prime minister promised. Iran is restocking its arsenal as well as that of Lebanese Hezbollah. Hamas has survived the war and is reestablishing its rule in the half of the Gaza Strip that President Trump’s map left it. There is no alternative to Hamas on the horizon, largely because Netanyahu has blocked the evolution of alternative Palestinian rule.
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Inside Israel, politicization of security is rampant. Netanyahu’s appointments to head the Mossad and Shin Bet--pillars of national security--are mediocre yes-men, one a security novice, the other a messianist.
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The IDF is losing career officers at an alarming rate as two years of combat fatigue take their toll. No progress has been made toward conscripting Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) youth to compulsory service. National Religious settler militias are running rampant in the West Bank. The settlers there have just been granted an appropriation of nearly NIS three billion for their ‘infrastructure’ needs.
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The fissures that have opened within Israeli Jewish society are widening by the day. More and more secular-liberal Israelis are leaving or considering leaving the country. Our neighbors are noticing. Here is a uniquely triumphant, one-sided Gazan observation, that of researcher Ahed Parawna: “While Gazans live steadfastly amid the ruins, the Israelis are afraid and are looking for ways to leave the country.”
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Correction: not “the Israelis” but rather the minority of Israelis who do not ascribe to the increasingly right-messianic-racist mainstream. Gazans, take note.
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Yossi Alpher's Death Tango: Ariel Sharon, Yasser Arafat and Three Fateful Days in March
"Anyone seeking to understand how Israelis and Palestinians traded the hopes of Oslo for something approaching hopelessness is well-advised to read this book. With penetrating analysis and elegant prose, Yossi Alpher has told the gripping story of three days nearly two decades ago that continue to haunt would-be peacemakers. Yossi’s faithful readers will not be disappointed with his latest effort."
Ambassador Frederic C. Hof, Bard College
"A riveting account of the crucial days in March 2002 when the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was profoundly changed for the worse. The peace camp has never recovered from those wrenching days, and we live now without any hope of a just settlement. Alpher is a highly respected expert who has spent decades studying this conflict from both sides."
Bruce Riedel, Director of the Brookings Intelligence Project
"A critical assessment of a key period in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict never before presented in such detail. The best and most capable players at the executive and political levels proved unable to forge any resolution, final or partial, because both parties continued to maintain an insurmountable gulf between themselves. This is a MUST read for anyone daring to tackle the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and of Israel-Arab relations in general."
Efraim Halevy, former Head of the Mossad (1998-2002)
Oraib Khader and Avi Bar-On are youngish Palestinian and Israeli bachelors with security experience, readiness to do business with one another, a shared fondness for women and money, and total cynicism about the lack of peace between their two peoples.
Oraib and Avi can never become true friends: the cultural and political gaps are too wide. But as they confront a failed peace process and a bleak peace future, they readily become business partners: shady business that exploits a lot of naïve international peace aspirations.
As Oraib sums up on a visit to Sarpsborg, Norway, where the ultimately-failed Oslo peace talks were held, “There is a lesson here for those who still doggedly and hopelessly pursue a two-state solution in the Middle East. Get smart. Get out of the Israeli-Palestinian peace business. Step back and let the Jews and Arabs screw one another while making money.”